Royal Outlook

With the Royals' first spring training game just days away, I started thinking, "What are some keys to a successful season for the team?" To be more specific, I think a .500 season would be a tremendous success for a Kansas City squad that hasn't finished above this mark since 2003. So, here are the five most important factors that I think will decide whether or not the Royals can reach 81 wins in 2008.

1. Which Zach Greinke will the Royals get?

This question has been asked numerous times since Kansas City called up the boy wonder in 2004. Greinke showed tremendous upside as a rookie, posting a 3.97 ERA in 24 starts. But after a sub-par 2005 where Greinke's ERA was 5.80, the young pitcher experienced personal problems and was excused from the team during the 2006 spring training. Greinke started the 2007 season as the Royals No. 3 starter, but was moved to the bullpen later in the season due to inconsistencies in the starting role. Buddy Bell's decision to move Greinke to the pen proved to be the right one. Greinke looked refreshed and rejuvenated coming out of the bullpen, touching the upper 90s regularly on the radar gun and gaining confidence along the way. He finished the 2007 season on a high note after Bell reinstated him as a starter.

With the success of Gil Meche and the emergence of Brian Bannister, there is much less pressure on Greinke, and if the Royals can get the Greinke that they saw in 2004 and parts of 2007, the Royals' pitching staff could turn into a respectable group in 2008. If Greinke stumbles, the Royals could be scratching for starters, just like they have the last few years.

2. Can Alex Gordon and Billy Butler progress?

The Royals have been waiting for these two prospects to grace the middle of the team's lineup literally for years. Now the two have the chance to turn the struggling franchise back into a respectable organization. Sounds like real pressure. It is. Just ask Gordon, who stumbled through the first half of his 2007 rookie season. Gordon even dropped below the .200 mark for part of the year. But he progressed as a hitter, and showed plenty of pop in his bat towards the end of the season, and he finished 2007 hitting .247 with 15 HR and 60 RBI, a far cry from his miniscule numbers earlier in the year. 

Butler, on the other hand, was called up in the middle of another miserable Royals season. He looked comfortable and seasoned at the plate, but was restricted mostly to a DH role because of a lack of defensive prowess. This year, the Royals expect Butler to hit smack dap in the middle of the lineup, possibly in the 3, 4, or 5 spot, and most news outlets have reported that Butler is making strides at first base.

The Royals desperately need Alex Gordon to be the player that they thought he would be when they chose him No.1 overall in the 2005 draft. Gordon was great at third base, and if he can swing the bat like he did in the second half of the 2007 season, he could potentially be an All-Star. Butler's offense will be much needed also if the Royals want to push for 81 wins. And if Butler can play first base, the Royals could have a corner infield to die for in a few years.

3. Was Jose Guillen a smart sign?

Dayton Moore hasn't done anything to inspire doubt in Royals fans. He went out and got Gil Meche. Baseball experts criticized the signing (5 years, $55 milllion), and Moore proved them all wrong. Moore snagged Brian Bannister in a trade with the Mets for Ambiorix Burgos, and Bannister finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting. And, oh yeah, Moore grabbed a kid name Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 Draft from the Padres. Now, Soria is the team's closer. So, Moore clearly has made some great decisions in his first year as the Royals' general manager.

Was Guillen a great sign? This will be an interesting story to follow as 2008 progresses. Guillen is coming off of a career year with the Seattle Mariners, hitting .290 with 23 HR and 99 RBI. But, Guillen will turn 32 this season, and it has already been announced that he will miss the first 15 games due to a violation of the MLB's steroid policy. Also, Guillen recently asked Moore and Manager Trey Hillman to be the team's primary right fielder, moving Mark Teahen to left field after Teahen already moved from third base to right field to make room for Alex Gordon.

Guillen could be a great asset to the middle of the Royals lineup and a great arm in right field. He could also be past his prime and a cancer in the locker room. Which way this goes could make a huge difference for KC in 2008.

4. Which Mark Teahen will the Royals get?

Mark Teahen exploded onto the Royals scene towards the end of 2006. His numbers after the All-Star game rivaled those of many of the game's best hitters. Teahen finished the 2006 season hitting .290 with 18 HR and 69 RBI. Many people around the organization thought the Royals had found an important offensive cornerstone. But, after an off-season shoulder surgery Teahen seemed to underperform offensively in 2007, hitting .274 with 60 RBI and only 7 HR.

In my opinion, the Teahen we saw in 2006 could hit anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 in the Royals lineup. The 2007 offensive version of Teahen, on the other hand, is much less valuable. If Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen all pull it together offensively, the middle of the Royals lineup could become very respectable very quickly.

5. How will Trey Hillman transition?

Baseball experts around the country praised the hiring of Trey Hillman in much the same way that they gawked at the hiring of General Manager Dayton Moore. Because of Hillman's experience in Japanese baseball, many people don't know what to expect as far as strategy goes. How Hillman handles his young team, especially the pitching staff, will ultimately decide the fate of the 2008 Royals.